Powerpoint presentation

the National Budget for FY2015-16 Dhaka: 5 June 2015 CPD IRBD 2015 Team
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD and Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD were in overall charge of preparing this report as the Team Leaders.
Lead contributions were provided by Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Additional Research Director and Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan, Research Fellow, CPD.
Valuable research support was received from Mr Md. Zafar Sadique, Senior Research Associate; Mr M Shafiqul Islam, Additional Director Admin. & Finance; Ms Meherun Nesa, Research Associate; Ms Farzana Sehrin, Research Associate; Ms Umme Shefa Rezbana, Research Associate; Ms Mahenaw Ummul Wara, Research Associate; Mr Md. Naimul Gani Saif, Research Associate; Mr Mohammad Afshar Ali, Research Associate; Ms Shahida Pervin, Research Associate; Mr Mostafa Amir Sabbih, Research Associate; Ms Nashia Zaman, Research Associate; Mr Ariful Islam, Research Associate; Ms Refaya Rashmin, Research Associate; Mr Estiaque Bari, Research Associate, Mr Uttam Kumar Paul, Deputy Director, Accounts; Mr Md. Shamimur Rohman, Senior Accounts Associate; Mr Muhammad Zillur Rahman, Accounts Associate; Mr Muhammad Nabil, Dialogue Associate; Mr Ziaul Hoque Zia, Programme Associate (Accounts); Ms Mubash Shira Rahman, Research Intern; and Mr Aqmar Mallick, Research Intern, CPD.
Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan was the Coordinator of the CPD IRBD 2015 Team.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 The CPD IRBD 2015 Team would like to register its sincere gratitude to Professor
Rehman Sobhan, Chairman, CPD for his advice and guidance
The Team gratefully acknowledges the valuable support provided by Ms Anisatul FatemaYousuf, Director, Dialogue and Communication Division, CPD and her colleagues at theDivision in preparing this report. Contribution of the CPD Administration and Finance Divisionis also highly appreciated. Assistance of Mr A H M Ashrafuzzaman, Deputy Director (SystemAnalyst) and Mr Hamidul Hoque Mondal, Senior Administrative Associate is particularlyappreciated Concerned officials belonging to a number of institutions have extended valuable support to the CPD IRBD 2015 Team members for which the Team would like to register its sincere thanks The CPD IRBD 2015 Team alone remains responsible for the analyses, interpretations and conclusions presented in this report CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CONTEXT OF THE BUDGET MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK SECTORAL MEASURES b. INDUSTRYc.
d. ENVIRONMENTe.
SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND DISTRICT BUDGET VIII. CONCLUDING REMARKS CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 I. CONTEXT OF THE BUDGET CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 I. CONTEXT OF THE BUDGET
 The national budget FY16 has been prepared in the backdrop of the following
advantages in national economy:
 Low inflationary pressure  Declining interest rates Stable exchange rates Manageable fiscal deficit Upward trend in remittance flows Favourable balance of payments Augmented foreign exchange reserves  However the economy has to confront the following challenges:
 Poor fiscal planning creating credibility gap
 Domestic borrowing biased financing mix of the budget deficit
 Sluggish private investments and poor job creation
 Unachieved tax revenue target and overall poor revenue generation
 Poor utilisation of concessional financial including project aid
 Depressed export growth , particularly in the US market
 Inability to take advantage of current macroeconomic stability for growth-friendly
expansionary economic reforms.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 I. CONTEXT OF THE BUDGET
Drawing strengths from global economy
Low level of global commodity prices
Falling price of crude oil
Strong US Dollar
Upward trend in job creation in the US economy
Confronting challenges originating in global economy
A weakened Euro
Risk of deflation in Euro area
Weak investment demand in oil-exporting economies
Weakened global trade
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 I. CONTEXT OF THE BUDGET
The objectives of the budget for FY16 appear to be:
 High growth of revenue targetted for underwriting overreaching  Harmonisation of taxes and tariff to support certain domestic activities  Incremental allocations for building physical infrastructures to enhance Also Budget FY16 is being presented at a time when:
The Sixth Five Year Plan is reaching its finishing lineThe Seventh Five Year Plan is commencing with the FY16 budgetCoinciding with the launch of post-MDG international development goals CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 I. CONTEXT OF THE BUDGET
CPD analyses on the budget have been undertaken in view of:
 Soundness of fiscal framework Sustainability of the current macroeconomic model Alignment of the FY16 budget with upcoming mid-term plan Appropriateness of revealed allocations in different sectors Sensitivity to social groups ( e.g. gender, child, poor and senior citizens) Regional economic balance ( particularly in local governments through district budgets)  Emphasises on major economic reform agenda to generate the "big push" from current growth trap Concludes with a set of summary observations
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 I. CONTEXT OF THE BUDGET
 Five criteria for assessing the budget has been deployed to assess the efficacy of the recent budget experiences: 1. Clearance and credibility - Were the budgets designed within clear and
credible limits for fiscal policy? 2. Alliance with medium-term priorities- Were the budgets closely aligned
with the medium-term strategic priorities of government? 3. Effectiveness of capital budgeting framework- Does the capital budgeting
framework meet the national development needs in a cost-effective and coherent manner? 4. Justifying the allocations- Did the budgets present a comprehensive, accurate
and reliable account of the public finances? 5. Quality of prospective management and monitoring plan- Is there a
concrete plan to manage and monitor the commitments made in the budgets? CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 II. MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 II. MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK
 The GDP growth target for FY16 is set at 7.0% (6.5% in FY15, provisional) Moderate improvement in GDP growth and investment (both private and public) forecasted – Modest expectation regarding investment scenario  In FY16, 70% of incremental investment to come from private sector, remaining 30%  An additional (approx.) Tk. 57,000 crore private investment will be required in FY16 ICOR is expected to decline (improve in productivity) in FY16 and stabilise Inflation is also expected to stabilize around 6% Growth and Investment
FY15 (B) FY15 (R) FY16 (B) FY17 (T)
GDP growth (%)
Investment (as % of GDP)
Private (as % of GDP)
Public (as % of GDP)
CPI inflation (%)
 It has been mentioned in the budget speech that annually 1.3 million jobs in the domestic market and 0.5 million abroad were generated during 2010-2013  However, it has not been mentioned that between 2005-06 and 2010, the corresponding figures were 1.7 million and 0.6 million respectively - a slowdown in employment generation!  This implies a slowdown in annual employment generation after 2010 (in both home and abroad) in comparison to previous four years CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 II. MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK
 Fiscal framework is planned based on an ideal framework! Both revenue and expenditure is expected to improve (as % of GDP) – while budget deficit will reduce  Both revenue and total expenditure to grow in FY16 by 1.3% and 1.4% of GDP  Reliance on domestic sources – led by bank borrowing in financing budget deficit has Fiscal Framework (as % of GDP)
Domestic Financing of which, Banking Foreign Financing CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 II. MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK
 Public debt as % GDP is at a reasonable state for Bangladesh – May increase a bit in  Expected decline from 35.8% in FY14 by 34.9% in FY18  Currently about 57% of the public debt is attributable to domestic source and 43% to  Much will depend on government being able to use low-cost borrowings – which is not observed in recent years Public Debt (as % of GDP)
Total Debt
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 II. MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK
 A stable monetary and external outlook is expected over the nest three years Under the circumstances, export growth target for FY16 looks ambitious Domestic credit growth is expected to increase slightly next fiscal year from 17.3% (FY15) to 17.3% in FY16  Export growth projected at 12% for the next three years (faster than imports) Remittance to grow at 10% in FY16 and 11% for the next two years Monetary and External Sector (% growth)
Money Supply (M2) Private Sector Credit Export (growth in %) Import (growth in %) Remittances (growth in %) CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 Revenue (27.6%) projected to grow faster than public expenditure (23.1%)-
Total budget expenditure is set at 17.2% of GDP Revenue income will be 12.1% of GDP  Development expenditure (27.4%) programmed to grow slower than non-
development revenue expenditure (29.2%) – impact of new pay scale!  ADP: 32.9% of total public expenditure (31.3% in the RBFY15)
 Budget deficit has been projected at 5.0% of GDP (same in RBFY15)
 Balance in financing budget deficit will be restored, if implemented –
High foreign financing target (39.6% growth over the RBFY15) has been
set with anticipated gross foreign aid flow of USD 4.9 billion (highest
USD 2.9 billion in FY14)
Government's net bank borrowing will increase by only 4.1%
 Quality of fiscal framework is questionable!
 The budget does not provide any monitorable transparent plan for its
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 According to CPD projections, all major parameters of fiscal framework will need to register higher growth rates to attain the targets compared to those planned in the budget FY16. Because the budget targets take revised budget figures for FY15 as its base which in reality will lesser. Growth Rates Budget and Reality (%)
FY16B over Proj_CPD
FY16B over
FY14A over
Annual Development Programme Net Foreign Borrowing and Grant Domestic Borrowing CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 The quality of fiscal planning is deteriorating over the last four years which is likely to  The weakest link among all the indicators is net foreign borrowing Fiscal gap as percentage of budget (%)
Net Foreign Borrowing Net Domestic Borrowing CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 As share of GDP, between FY12 and FY15 -  Revenue-GDP ratio also declined ! Public expenditure did not increase! ADP increased Fiscal Framework as % of GDP
Actual % share of GDP
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
CPD_P FY16B
Net Foreign Borrowing
and Grant
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Winning sectors in ADP (FY08-FY13)
Incremental Share FY08-
Share FY13
Rural Development & Institutions Physical Planning, Water Supply &Housing
Education & Religious Affairs Oil, Gas and Natural Resources
Health, Nutrition, Population & Family Welfare Development Assistance Public Administration Social Welfare, Women Affairs & Youth Development Labour & Employment Science, Information & communication Technology Sports and Culture CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Share of Revenue FY16
Revenue Mobilisation
 FY16 budget targets an additional Tk.
45,072 crore revenue with a 27.6% growth over RBFY15  CPD Projection: (approx. Tk. 55,500 crore)  NBR to take the lead role (accounting for 91.7% of incremental revenue) with 30.6% growth Incremental Share of Revenue FY16
 LTU is expected to account for 30.9% of incremental NBR revenue  36.3% of incremental revenue from income tax; while 29.6% from VAT  Two-third of total income tax will be collected from companies  Import duty collection growth target is set CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 Non-NBR revenue (non-tax plus non-NBR tax) growth for FY16 remain at a reasonable level (13.2%)  Much will depend on mobile spectrum fee  Actual required growth could be as high as 32.3%  Overall revenue collection may fall short of Tk. 10,500 crore from the target  CPD projected Tk. 30,000 crore shortfall on 1 June 2015,
during the State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY15 report
 Under such a scenario required growth rate for revenue in FY16 may shoot up to around 36.3%, while for NBR the actual target may stand around
 Earlier experience - only in FY08 (27.4% - CTG and international price effect) and FY11 (28.0% - international price effect) a higher growth was attained – two outlier years! CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Total Public Expenditure
Change in FY16B over FY15R
Public Service
Interest Payments Education and Technology Transport and Communication
Fuel and Energy
Defence Services Social Security and Welfare Public Order and Safety Industrial and Economic Services Recreation, Culture and Religious Affairs Others(Memorandum Item) Total Expenditure CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 Allocation for Public Services is set to be 74.5% higher of RBFY15 (Tk. 24,208  Tk. 24,711 crore additional allocation for Finance Division! - Mostly to be paid  Tk. 5,500 crore have been allocated for funding PPP and export incentives  Additional Tk. 6,925 crore allocation for Investments in Shares and Equities  Tk. 5,000 crore has been for Investment for Recapitalisation – (for State- CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Economic Analysis of Non-Development Revenue Expenditure
Indicators
Share B Share RB Incremental
Share FY16B FY16/R
Pay and Allowances
42.7 15803
Goods and Services Interest Payments
Domestic
Subsidies and Current Transfers
37.1 13723
Block Allocation Acquisition of Assets and Works Total Augmented Non-Development Revenue  Highest incremental share to Pay and Allowances, followed by Subsidies and Current Transfers  Interest payment remains the sector with third highest allocation  Domestic Interest Payments will increase by 18.5% in FY16– about 19.3% of total augmented non-development revenue expenditure –effect of deficit financing.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Subsidy (loans, subsidies and fiscal incentives)
 No clear mention of the total demand proposed for FY16
 Total subsidy allocation is reduced by (-) 10.2%  About 8.3% of total public expenditure  Total subsidy in BFY14 is 1.4% of GDP which was 1.8% in RBFY14  BPC subsidy is expected to be Tk. 800 crore  PDB subsidy for power is expected to be (-) 11.1% lower  These are reflected in loans and advances ((-) 19.5% reduction)  Agriculture subsidy will be Tk. 9,000 crore – same as the previous year  Should be adequate in view of lower global prices  For export sector, allocation is reduced by (-) 24.2%  A comprehensive subsidy policy for Bangladesh is important! CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Annual Development Programme
 ADP of Tk. 97,000 crore has been proposed for FY16  41,594 crore (55% of original ADP FY15) was implemented upto April 2015 (last year it was 49.8%)  29.3% higher than RADP for FY15 and 20.8% higher than ADP for FY15  In reality it will be 42.6% higher (CPD projection) Project Aid component is 35.6% of total ADP (33.2% in RADP of FY15 and 34.5% % in original ADP of FY15)  Tk. 2,560.8 crore has been provided to development assistance
 Self-financed development budget is reported for the third time  Allocation for autonomous bodies and corporations has been reduced to 3,997 crore (Tk. 5,686 crore for FY15) – less ambitious!  Only 1,739 crore has been implemented upto April 2015 – poor performance CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 The ADP for FY15 contains 999 projects (1034 for ADP of FY15)
 Another 860 unapproved projects have also listed in the ADP FY16
FY15 Number of Projects: 1034
FY16 Number of Projects: 999
 Almost similar trend in the structure of ADP continues apart from more allocation for concluding projects for FY16 compared to FY15 – a welcome change; will it be  Only 41 new projects are included (in FY15: 29) – 1.4% of total ADP allocation;
 159 new projects were included in the RADP for FY15 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 33.4% of allocation is provided to 330 projects which are suppose to continue to the next ADP (for FY17)  However, highest number of projects (376 projects) are scheduled to be concluded in FY16, according to project completion timeline  249 carryover projects consist of 14.2% of the total allocation
 Transportation sector has 61 of these projects, while ‘Physical Planning, Water Supply &Housing' Sector also has 40 number of similar projects  Thus total number of projects which should be concluded: 625
 Planning Commission identified 324 projects which may be completed in FY16
 Highest number of unapproved projects – 860!
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Unapproved projects without Allocation Projects listed to seek Foreign Funds Total Number of Projects in the ADP 916 1039 1037 1046 1034 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Top Five Sectors in ADP FY16
No of Projects Share (%) Share (%) Share (%) Growth (%) ADP FY16
ADP FY16 RADP FY15 ADP FY15
over RADP FY15
Total Five Sectors
Physical Planning, Water Supply Education & Religious Affairs Rural Development & Institutions Other 12 Sectors
 The top 5 sectors have received 70.6%
of total ADP allocation – concentration ratio increased  Transport Sector once again has received both highest number of projects and amount of allocation (22.4% of total allocation) – 25.4%growth over RADP FY15  Allocation for power sector has doubled in FY16 over RADP FY15 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 CPD has selected a set of 26 projects under the ADP for FY15 for close scrutiny (share of these projects in total ADP in FY16 is 17.6%)  Actual spending on these 26 were 34.3% during Jul-Mar FY15 (actual spending on all ADP projects were 43.8%) 14 of the 26 projects were supposed to be completed in FY15  ‘Construction of Haripur 412 MW Combined Cycle Power Plan and Associated Substation' was not reported in the ADP for FY16 (its cumulative progress was73.6 per cent till Nov FY15)  Apart from Haripur project, all of the remaining 13 projects were not completed in FY15 and were carried forward to the ADP for FY16  Only Joydebpur-Mymensingh Road Development Project received adequate allocation for completion in FY16 – which was supposed to becompleted by FY13 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Status of (remaining) 24 priority projects (identified by CPD)
Possible implementation rate (%) if total FY16 allocation is spent
• Construction of Bibiana-3, 400 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant, Veramara Combined Cycle Plant (360 MW), Construction of Nagarpur- • Dhaka-Chittagong 4-Lane, Dhaka Elevated Expressway PPP Project, Ashuganj 450MW PP, Ghorashal 365 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant, Shahjibazar 330 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant, Shikalbaha Duel Fuel 225 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant, Power Production and North Bengal Sugar Mill, Leather Industrial City, Dhaka (Second Revised), Construction of 950m long Dharla Bridge in Kurigram • Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project, Third Karnaphuli Bridge, Dhaka- Chittagong Railway Development Project, Bhomra Land Port, Bhola 225 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant, Chapainawabganj 100 MW HFO Based Power Plant, Providing Electricity Connection to 18 lakh clients through Rural Electricity extension, Shahjalal Fertilizer Project, Mubarakpur Oil/Gas Well Exploration Project, Augmentation of Gas Production under Fast Track Program, Establishment of Gas Compressor Station in Ashuganj and Elenga CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 It appears that, number of new projects in ADP FY16 was limited - however, the practice of allocating symbolic allocation (the minimum to keep the project
in the ADP list) is still pervasive
 14 projects under ADP received only Tk. 1 lakh for FY16; 13 projects
received such allocation in FY15  12 of those are investment projects (10 in FY15) All of those are carryover from ADP FY15 9 of the 14 projects are from Transport sector (7 projects were in transport  32 ‘investment' projects under ADP received only Tk. 1 crore or less (besides those 12 investment projects with 1 lakh allocation) for FY16; 26 ‘investment'projects received such allocation in FY15  21 of the projects are carryover (16 of those were carryover in FY15) As a whole these 32 projects received only Tk. 12.0 crore allocation in ADP FY16 (averaged Tk. 37.6 lakh per project)  Projects from 11 different sectors shared this allocation CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 The business as usual as regards ADP continues -  Challenges of concluding and carry-over projects Cost and time-overrun continue Large number of projects with stagnating implementation capacity Rising number of unfunded projects No reform or policy mentioned to bring discipline in the ADP Absence of prioritisation framework No result-based monitoring CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 Revenue surplus helped to finance ADP since FY12 – a positive trend ADP Financing Structure by Source (Share, %)
Foreign Borrowing Net Domestic Borrowing Total ADP Financing CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
Budget Deficit and Financing
% of GDP FY16 over Revenue Collection Total Expenditure Overall Deficit (Excl Grants): Foreign Loan-Net Domestic Borrowing Bank Borrowing (Net) Non-Bank Borrowing (Net) Net Aid (bln US$) Gross Aid (bln US$)  82.5% of incremental deficit is programmed to be financed by foreign sources CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 III. PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORK
 Share of domestic financing 65.2% (71.7% in RBFY15)
 Tk 38,523 crore (44.5%) will come from the bank borrowing (41.6% in
 Tk 18,000 crore (20.8%) will come from non-bank sources (30.1% in RBFY15) Share of foreign financing will be 34.8% in FY16 (28.3% in RB of FY14)  Gross foreign aid
requirement will be around Sources of Deficit Financing
USD 4.9 bln (USD 3.8 bln
in RBFY14) – an almost
impossible target in view of only USD 2.3 billion being
received during Jul-Mar
 Much will depend on
project aid utilization of
ADP – 90.7% of total
foreign resources are for
ADP projects
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Personal Income Tax
 Personal income tax threshold has been raised by Tk. 30,000 to Tk. 2,50,000
 Good move considering the inflation adjustment - remained unchanged since FY2014 when it was Tk. 2,20,000  Taxable threshold in Bangladesh is lower than in India - IRs. 2,50,000 (equivalent to Tk.
 Tax threshold to per capita income ratio in Bangladesh (2.7:1) is lower compared to that  Threshold for women and senior citizens has been revised upward to Tk.3,00,000 from Tk. 2,75,000  For physically challenged, it has been raised to Tk. 3,75,000 from Tk. 3,50,000 Threshold for war-wounded freedom fighters has also been revised upwards to Tk. 4,25,000  Allowances of the Government officials will be taxed – will remove discrimination between government and non-government employees  Personal income tax imposed on gratuity income over Tk. 2.50 crore – gratuity income should not be taxed in principle CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
 Uniform minimum amount of tax of Tk. 4,000 for all taxpayers regardless of their geographical locations –this is not fair  Perquisites ceiling has been raised to Tk. 4.5 lakh from Tk. 3.5 lakh – will give benefits to salaried employees  Three slabs in personal income tax have been changed – will benefit the middle and high income group taxpayers more  Tax will be applicable to income earners with monthly basic salary of over Tk.
Proposed Individual Tax Rates
Taxable Income
Income Threshold (Yearly)
On first Tk. 2,50,000 of taxable income On next Tk.4,00,000 of taxable income On next Tk.5,00,000 of taxable income On next Tk.6,00,000 of taxable income 95,834 to 145,833 On next Tk.30,00,000 of taxable income 145,834 to 395,833 Balance of Income above Tk. 47.5 Lakh CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Wealth Surcharge
 Minimum net wealth exemption limit has been raised to Tk. 2.25 crore from Tk. 2 crore - inflation
accounting plies  Tax on net wealth above Tk. 30 crore has been slashed down to 25% from 30% - a benefit to the very  The amount of minimum surcharge is Tk. 3000  Need to think of an inheritance tax to unify both gift and property transfer taxes into one Corporate Tax
 Tax for Publicly Traded Companies has been reduced to 25% from 27.5%
 10% tax rebate has now been abolished for issuing dividend of 30% and over. At the same time, companies don't need to pay income tax at the rate of 35% if less than 10% dividend is given – will undermine the interest of share holders  Penalty of 5% additional tax will be imposed if the dividend is less than 15% Overall, the changes will benefit companies  Tax for Publicly Traded Bank, Insurance and Financial Institution has been brought down
to 40% from 42.5% - increased difference between traded and non-traded companies  Tax on Publicly Traded Cigarette Manufacturer increased from 40 % to 45% - welcome
move. However, the 45% rate for Non-Publicly Traded Cigarette Manufacturer remained
 Other corporate taxes (non-publicly traded company, mobile phone company, merchant bank) CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
New Sources of Tax
 Tax has been imposed on income from Poultry & Hatchery in three progressive slabs –
expected to discourage misuse of zero-tax but could be a disincentive for genuineentrepreneurs  Compulsory submission of guardian's TIN certificate during admission of children in English medium school – welcome move Tax at Source
 Existing 5% upfront source tax on interest income from Treasury bonds and Treasury
bills has been withdrawn  Existing provision of 10% deduction of tax at source on income from share market by any company or partnership firm has been removed  Some adverse affect on revenue collection  Tax at source on print, electronic media and online advertisement has been increased  Tax at source on commission of buying houses is revised upward from 7.5% to 10%  Will enhance revenue collection CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Undisclosed Money
 The Finance Minister did not say anything about black money in this speech. However,
silence means continuation of earlier facilities to whiten black money  Special tax treatment (19c): Opportunity continues for invest in government Treasury bond by paying only 10% tax  Voluntary disclosure of income (19e): Scope continues for legalising undisclosed money in productive and income-generating sectors through payment of 10% penalty alongside the regular tax (Provision includes capital market investment)  Special tax treatment (19BBBBB): Tax per square metre is reduced from FY15 for investing undisclosed money in real estate sectors (residential building and apartments) outside of Dhaka and Chittagong cities.
 CPD estimates that the effective tax rate ranged between 1.49% and 3.72% depending on location and size of the apartment- the provision will discourage honest tax payers  Unethical considering social justice Could be considered as an ‘opportunity lost' as far as investment in other productive sectors was concerned  Need for a predictable legal framework including a new law on undisclosed money and CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Tax Holiday
 Information
Telecommunication Transmission Network (NTTN) sector tax holiday period hasbeen extended up to 30 June, 2024 (from 30 June, 2019)  Tax holiday has been given for automobile manufacturing sector and tyre manufacturing industry  Tax rebate at 15% on income earned in textile and jute goods sector has been extended up to 30 June, 2019  All these moves will help expansion of the relevant sectors. However, vigilance against misuse needed Change in Legal Measure
 Provision of ‘scrutiny assessment' has been introduced in case of universal self
assessment. However, not clear what this means CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Rate of Duty at Import Stage
 Major changes in Rate of Duties in FY16
Types of Duty
Supplementary Duty  In FY16, the duty structure has been significantly revised.
 Both CD and SD have been changed for a large number of products.  Unlike previous year, SD has been increased for more products than it has been  On the other hand, CD has been reduced for a significant number of products (723 items) while it has been decreased for only 64 items.
 These changes indicate that there has been a move towards para-tariff measures as against tariff measures for protection of domestic industries.
 IMF-ECF obligated Bangladesh to rationalize para-tariff measures. The signal in FY16 Budget is rather contradictory.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Customs Duty (CD)
 Number of slabs of customs duty increased: a new slab of "1%" has been introduced
 Capital machinery both for export-oriented and domestic industries is now same at  Major Changes in CD include: Type of Duty:
Raw and Refined Sugar CD: Increase TK 2000/M. Ton & TK 4000/M. Ton & Local inefficient mills will be TK 8000/M. Ton benefitted at the cost of consumers Increased protection to local silk Iron & Steel (semi- TK 7000/M. Ton Cost of construction will increase Capital Machinery Not likely to have significant impact Reduction of both CD & SD will hurt Optical Fibre Cable Access to internet will be costlier Consumers will be benefited Renewable Energy Reduced demand for energy Disaster Management CD Good Initiative to ensure structural integrity of the buildings CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Supplementary Duty (SD)
 SD has been changed for 755 products (8 Digit HS)
 Increased for 401 products: newly imposed on 21 items  5-10% increase on Frozen Food (255 out of 397): burden on consumers Increased to 20% from 15% on Vegetables and Tea: high end consumers will be  SD increased to 20% Engines for Auto Rickshaw/Three Wheelers: Cost escalation 20% SD imposed on Battery: Increased protection SD increased from 30% to 45% CKD Motor Cycle: Local manufacturers will be benefited but the assembling industries will suffer  SD has also increased for: SIM Card, some Chemical Items, few Leather Articles, Glass and Glass wares, Few Iron/Steel Articles etc.
 Decreased for 366 products: withdrawn from 7 items  SD reduced from 60% to 45% on 188 RMG products (96 Knit Items, 92 Woven): Consumers will benefit  10-15% Reduction on Some Prepared Food Products: Local Industry will be  15% Reduction on Plastic Products: Local Industry will be affected  5% Reduction on Wood Products & 5-15% Reduction on paper Articles: environment friendly move  10% reduction on some Glass and Glass wares CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
SRO Rate Concerning Import
 5 new products will enjoy reduced SRO rate of 2% duty(existing 5%): fire extinguishers,
Busbar Truncated System (imported for Text. Ind.), Transformers (exceeding capacity 120MVA), and Fan motors: Will help RMG and some other industries.  The following items will also enjoy SRO Rate of import duty in FY16: Type of Products
Number of
SRO Rate of
CDs Decreased or Withdrawn
Pharma. Raw Materials Raw Materials of Toy Industry Raw Materials of Weaving Industry Computer Accessories Ship Building Equipment Raw Materials of Poultry/Dairy Feed Machineries used in Poultry/Dairy sector Communication, lighting and sign products imported for export oriented RMG Raw Materials of Poultry/Dairy Sector  Good initiative considering the fact that, these are emerging sectors in the economy and some of these have potential as export oriented industries.
 Benefits granted to RMG may be granted to other export sectors as well. CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Regulatory Duty (RD)
 In the speech, RD has been proposed to be reduced to 4% from 5% as part of tariff
liberalization; however, these changes are not reflected in the tariff schedules for FY2016  Previously exempted goods from RD will enjoy the facility in the next year too.
 17 items, on which 25% CD is imposed, have been proposed to be exempted from the  Praiseworthy move since the products are used as raw materials by local industries  For 34 items, on which 10% CD is imposed, 5% RD has been imposed  The purpose of this new imposition is not clear as it covers a wide variety of products. Tax at Source
 Flat rate of Tax at Source for all Export items: to be considered as final tax liability of the
 RMG Products: 0.3% to 1.0% Non-RMG Products: 0.6% to 1.0%  A praiseworthy move from the perspective of revenue generation. A part of this additional revenue may be used for supporting the ongoing restructuring in the RMG sector.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Value Added Tax (VAT)
 On Import stage, VAT has been exempted for 14 items.
 VAT exempted threshold for sample export by Pharmaceutical companies has
been increased to TK 1,00,000 from TK 30,000  In the budget for FY2016, coverage of VAT has been significantly revised:  Quite a few sectors have been exempted from VAT: Electricity bill of cold storages, IDCOL registered solar panel batteries, VAT on sales of jute goods etc. VAT on iron scrap exempted: price of construction material may fall.  On the other hand, VAT has been newly imposed or increased on several  10% VAT has been imposed on private universities: likely to be paned on to  20% VAT imposed on locally produced Bidi paper: cost of Bidi will increase VAT on Super Shops increased to 4% from 2%: Consumers will bear the burden 20% SD on Ceramic Bathroom Fittings (Bathtub, Jacuzzi etc): general consumers will not be affected as the items are not widely used.  4% VAT imposed on online transaction of goods and services: praiseworthy move to widen the tax net.  VAT on bigger flats (above 1600 sq.ft) to be increased to 4.5% from 3%.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Value Added Tax (VAT)
 SIM Tax reduced to TK 100 from TK 300 for issuance and replacement
 5% SD imposed on the services provided through SIM and RUIM card: rate of talk-time
may increase  VAT to be deducted at source for enterprises having annual turnover over TK 1 crore If traders do not want to pay 3% on their annual turnover then they will have to pay higher amount of tax than before (increased by TK 600-3000) Tobacco Tax
 Price slabs of high end cigarettes have been revised downward while only the
lowest slab has been increased. Will discourage consumption of lower-end cigarettes and also has revenue implications.
Existing Price slab
Existing Tax rate
Proposed Tax rate
(for 10 sticks) Tk.
(SD Rate)
(for 10 sticks) Tk.
(SD rate)
Lowest: Tk. 19.00 Low: Tk. 20.00-39.00 Medium: Tk. 40.00-69.00 High: Tk. 70 and above CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
Tobacco Tax
Price structure of Bidi has been revised as well:
Type of Bidi
25 sticks non-filter Price of Bidi has been increased by 15%: likely to reduce consumption.
Advance Income Tax (AIT)
AIT has increased by 5% for semi-manufactured gold and silver: good
move to generate revenue from luxury items. For car batteries, AIT increased by 1%: local manufacturers to enjoy some Motor Vehicle
20% SD imposed on Hybrid Cars: a new type of car included in the tariff
schedule but the 20% SD may discourage its use. CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 IV. FISCAL MEASURES
 At the import stage, collection of revenue (import duty, VAT, SD, RD) during July-March FY15 was Tk. 26942 crore (29.1% of NBR's total collection)  CPD has analyzed the import duty structure for FY16 considering the actual import value for the first nine months of FY15.
 According to the budget documents, the growth of CD, SD (import) and VAT (import) has been planned to be about 24% (for all the three) Duties/taxes at import stage BFY16 growth over Growth estimated from duty structure for FY16 SD (Import stage) VAT (Import Stage)  CPD analysis found that, changes in the proposed duty structure is commensurate only with the targeted growth envisaged for Customs Duty collection. The estimated growth based on the changes in the duty structure diverges significantly from the budgetary plans for SD and VAT CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Tax Administration
 Significant improvement of tax administration's capacity will be required to attain
revenue mobilisation targets – however, it did not get any notable mention!  Expansion of tax administration upto Upazilla level was planned earlier – no actual progress has been mentioned  Transfer pricing cell needs to be strengthened  Will require adequate budgetary allocation for the needed soft infrastructure and human resources  It can also help combat trade mispricing (i.e. misinvoicing and misdeclaration)  Collaboration among relevant agencies (i.e. central bank, commercial banks)  VAT and SD Act implementation plan needs to be finalized  Disputed issues need to be resolved (single rate vs multiple rates, reduced rate  No mention about rationalization of incentive structure! More effective utilization of ADR window is needed CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 V. SECTORAL MEASURES CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Total allocation for agricultural & allied sectors (AAS) is decreasing Share of AAS in Total Budget Share of AAS in Total GDP  Average share of AAS in total budget was 10.3% during FY10-FY15, but reduced to 6.8% in FY16  Average share of AAS in total GDP was 1.28% during FY10-FY15, but reduced  Allocation for the Ministry of Agriculture in FY16 budget increased by only 2% (less than inflation rate; decline in real terms).
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Agricultural subsidy remains constant at Tk. 9,000 crore  About 70.9% of total Agriculture ministry's allocation is for subsidy It was 3.6 % of total budget in FY15 but declined to 3.0% in FY16 It still constitutes 45% of total budget allocation for agriculture in FY16  To ensure fair prices for agricultural commodities, CPD proposes setting up of a Permanent Agricultural Price Commission on an urgent basis to ensure
incentive price for the producers while maintaining market stability
 No initiative on ensuring fair price of rice, effective public procurement of rice and crop insurance.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Government Initiatives
 Although good progress has been made in the field of poultry, progress in livestock
 a credit programme for development of livestock is expected to be initiated by Bangladesh Bank under which loan will be provided at 5 percent interest rate for purchasing and raising livestock  Introduction of Authoritative Land Records will help to reduce land litigation. Use of PPP to implement the project is also a good move.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Various fiscal and budgetary measures of the national budget FY16 would reduce production costs,increase operative profit and thereby facilitate businesses Changes in CD/SD/VAT, reduction of corporate tax rates and income taxes and budgetary allocation Infrastructure deficit is likely to remain a major concerning factor underpinning lack of adequate privateinvestment Only a few projects is expected to be completed in FY16 which will leave the demand mostly unmet Fast track projects may not be implemented as ‘fast' as hoped for.
Significant progress has been made only in one project: Padma bridge Fast Track Projects: How ‘Fast' They are?
Project Name
Total cost
Allocation for FY16
(crore Tk.)
completed
Dhaka MRT
(early commissioning) Deep Sea Port at
(first phase 2015) Paira Sea Port
Two unapproved-unallocated Matarbari Power
Rampal Power
LNG Terminal
Rooppur Nuclear P. Russia and BDG
P P
l D
a (
nt 2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16
Allocation for the Industrial Sector
 Allocation for the industrial sector has declined by 9.1% (BFY16 overRBFY15)
 Reduction on allocation both in non-development (44.7%) and development  Out of 13 ADP projects likely to be completed by FY16, only 7 projects will be completed by the end of the year; most of these are in BSCIC industrial estates  Progress is not up to the mark in case of Comilla Industrial Estate-2 (1.7%, FY15), SCIC industrial park, Shirajgonj (22.5%, FY15).
 SEZs: Five out of 30 approved projects are in early stage; 1:procurement stage, 3: feasibility stage; and 1: CCEA approved • 6 to be established by the private sector; selected SEZs for investors of key FDI sourcing countries (China, India and Japan) • Incentives for industries in the SEZs should not create adverse incentive for industries in the DTAs  Proposed increase in SDs on various intermediate products (from 15% to 20%) used in local industries is likely to raise effective rate of protection for domestic industries (steel,tubes, pipes) CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Changes in TTI for Selected Products
 A number of fiscal measures was likely to have positive/mixed impact on respective sectors (TTI:-30.1 to025.6)  Exemption of CD in excess of 5% and of VAT on essential imports of handloom weavers is likely to reduce input cost  Reduction of tax rate of 3% on income from poultry feed, dairy will have  Reduction of SD for a number of finished products may undermine competitive advantage of local products  Chocolate, pasta, sweet biscuits, waffles, bread  Introduction of three slabs for income tax (3%, 10% and 15%) for firms operating in three phases in the poultry sector supply chain (i.e. poultry feed,dairy) will rationalize income tax levels.
 Proposed upward revision of tax (by 20%) on annual turnover of small retailers, wholesalers and shopkeepers may raise tax payments by smallbusinesses CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Changes in TTI for Selected Products
TTI Change
TTI Change
-5.6 Processed
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Export Promotion
 Given the sluggish growth in export of major export products during FY15, rise in
source tax (as final settlement) in FY16 is likely to reduce operational profit of exporters.  RMG, Terri towel, cartoon, accessories, jute/jute goods, frozen fish and others: from 0.3/0.6 to 1%  RMG: Reduction of 5% CD and VAT on electrical and electronic accessories will
reduce import cost of fire and electrical safety instruments required for retrofitting of RMG factories  Fire resistant door; sprinkler system and equipment, video conference devices, LED panel, LED tube light, emergency lights  Exemption of duties on flax fibre (from 5% to 0%) will likely reduce import cost of fabric which would be helpful for apparel manufacturers  Reduction of SD on import of woven, tulles, crocheted knitted fabrics as well as various consumable items will likely reduce revenue earnings  Timely implementation of RMG industry park at Munshigonj needs to be ensured CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Leather: Slow progress of tannery industrial estate project; raises doubt as regards full
implementation by the second revised deadline (2016)  16.2% completed till March, FY15, maximum possible completion by FY16 will be 59.1%  Proposed rise of SD on selected inputs of leather and footwear products is likely to increase production cost  Prepared water pigments, polishes, creams and similar preparations for footwear or leather :  Plastic: SD rates lowered for various raw materials and intermediate products (plastic
made self adhesive plate, film, foil, polymides etc.): positive for local firms as operation costs are likely to be reduced  Reduction of SD on finished plastic products (box, case, crate, sacks, flusk, bottle, table ware, kitchen ware, door, window, frame, statuettes): could undermine reduce the comparative advantage of local products vis-a-vis imported ones  A number of plastic items (tissue holder, ice tray, ice scoop, and hanger) removed from VAT exemption lists: imposing VAT on those items will have insignificant impact on sales of those products  Withdrawal of existing 15% tax on industries manufacturing plastic crystals by recycling plastic waste: Likely to positively contribute to firms' income CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Ceramic: Imposition of 20% supplementary duty on bathtub, jacuzzi, shower and shower tray made of
ceramics will positively contribute to revenue generation as well as provide protection to domestic ceramic industry  Furniture: Increase of CD from 10% to 25% on particle board used by furniture exporters will provide
protection to domestic particle board industry  Pharmaceuticals: Progress as regards establishment of an Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) in
Munshigonj is not satisfactory (completion year: June, 2015)  37.8% by FY15 and maximum possible completion in FY16 will be 74.2%  Reduction of customs duty on various inputs for pharmaceutical industry is likely to reduce input cost and will contribute to competitiveness of local pharmaceutical products competitive  Propofol, Eribulin Mesylate INN, Sucralose USNF, Phenytoin Sodium etc Extension of VAT exemption threshold on the export of sample medicines from Tk. 30000 to Tk. 1 lakh will reduce shipment cost of exporters  Jute: Increase of source tax rate from 0.6% to 1% on jute and jute goods will further aggravate the situation
facing jute goods manufacturers and exporters  Exemption of trade VAT on local sales of jute products and on license issuance and renewal fee of jute and jute products: likely to raise sales of jute products  The road map for BMRE of BJMC mills with the support of China needs to be made public.
 There is no mention about enforcement of Mandatory Packaging Act which is essential for survival of the local jute industry  Necessary allocation is required in the revenue budget for operating mobile courts CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  ICT
 Total budget for FY16 (Tk.1073 cr.) has increased by 33.5% mainly thanks to rise in
 No reflection as regards allocation for establishment of Kaliakoir High-tech-Park in Gazipur in FM's budget speech  No allocation has been made in ADP 16; only 1.9% of total works completed till FY15  Establishment of Mohakhali IT village in Dhaka under PPP: only in the procurement  Allocation of Tk.3000 crore for lunching Bangladesh Satellite-1 into space by 2016: No allocation is traced under the ICT Division  Allocation of Tk. 1550 crore for expansion of science–based education: positive step to achieve long term targets in ITC sector.
 Rise of CD on computer accessories (from 2 to 5%) will increase price at retail level  Other computer software (8523.29.13) ; Other computer software (8523.49.29)  Downward revision of SIM tax for issuance of cards (from 300 to Tk.100) would reduce the burden on mobile companies; however, this will be partly outweighed by impositionof 5% SD on services provided through SIM card of mobile phone CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Tourism
 Budegt FY2016 was announced on the eve of ‘Tourism Year 2016'
 A 153% rise in total budget allocation for theMinistry of Civil Aviation and Tourism from Tk. 146 crore in RB FY15 to Tk. 372 crore in Budget FY16  However, a large part of fund is allocated for development of Cox's Bazar airport (Tk.200 cr.)  Six unapproved unallocated projects for tourism development need ADP allocation.
 Development of tourism facilities at Parki and Potenga, establishment of training centre in Khulna, upgradation of NHTTI  PPP initiative for developing exclusive tourist zones is still in project development stage: four projects approved in principle.  The Sundarban Tourism Policy has been approved: quick implementation is  Needed effective infrastructure related facilities in tourist areas.  In view of growing demand and to help develop the needed infrastructure, a separate ministry for tourism sector is needed. CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Labour: Higher allocation for MoL (33.6%) is mainly due to rise in
ADP allocation (38%) Ministry of Labour
 Different labour related projects are found at different stages of Labour & Employment  3 projects are likely to be completed in FY16 (renovation and modernization of 22 labour welfare centres and 3 labour relations institutes; establishment of 30 TTI centres)  Slow progress in establishment of 5 Zonal and 4 Regional Offices and Modernization and Stregthening of Institute Inspection Directorate  Projects on changing gender norms and garment employees  Institutional support for the migrant workers' remittance RADP RADP RADP ADP FY 13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Projects supposed to be completed by June, FY16
Project cost
Number of
Number of projects
Maximum possible
to be completed by completion by June
June, FY2016
Less than 10 crore
50-100 crore
Total projects under the MoL
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Labour: Positive impact on worker's skill development activities
 Tk. 100 crore allocation for the National Human Resource Development Fund (NHRDF) for FY16; initiative to form a separate authority for skill development  "Skills for Employment Investment Programme‟ to enhance skills of 15 lakh people in three phases  Adoption of the plan to establish 30 Centres of Excellence (CoE) in 15 industries to impart quality training.
 Skill Development Projects which are supposed to be completed by FY17 is going relatively slow.
 Poor progress in establishment of hostel for female garment workers at Ashulia, Savar & Dhaka (completion period: June 2017)  1.2% by FY16, maximum possible completion in FY16 is 9.30%.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 c. POWER & ENERGY CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Power and Energy
Power and Energy
 Total allocation for the power sector in FY2016 is Tk.18540 crore – substantially for power
sector development projects; 98.5% higher than RADP FY15  Only 11% of total budget allocated for energy sub-sector  Out of 24 projects the following projects are likely to be completed in FY16 1.Construction of Khulna coal based power plant connecting road;2. Land Acquisition, Land Development and Protection for Paira; 3. 1320 MW Thermal Power Plant; 4. Upgradation of Khulna 150 MW Peaking Power Plant to 225 MW combined Cycle Power Plant; 5. 21 Town Power Distribution Project and Development of New 132/133 KV and 33/11 KV Sub-station under DESA project  Upon completion of these projects an additional 1955 MW of electricity to be added in the national grid Projects supposed to be completed by June, FY16
Percentage of
possible
Number of
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Power and Energy
 Under the existing composition of fuel-mix for Composition of fuel Use(%)
generation of power, there is little possibility for coal to be the main source in the coming years.  Use of HFO and Diesel is increasing; gas is  Total allocation for the energy and mineral resource division in FY2016 is Tk.2037 crore: a rise of 100%  Out of 36 projects listed as " projected to be completed by FY16  16 projects likely to be completed  6 Projects cost over Tk100 crore; are supposed to be completed by June FY16.
 3 projects likely to be completed  More allocation and quick implementation is needed for gas sector related projects CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  FY 15 budget proposed to introduce 1% ‘Environment Protection Surcharge' or "Green Tax" on ad-
valorem basis on all types of products manufactured in Bangladesh by industries which pollute the  FY 15 budget proposed imposition of "Eco-tax" on the polluters who pollute Buriganga, Shitalakshya, Balu
and Turag river.
 Similarly in FY 15 tax holiday facility was announced for installing Hybrid Hoffman Kiln (HHK)
technology for brickfields to reduce air pollution.
 The FY 16 budget does not mention what has been the experience in implementing these welcome initiatives or what was the actual collection from the aforesaid taxes or how many brickfields have adopted the HHK technology. (However, on the website of Department of Environment (DoE) it is mentioned that 18 factories have been charged for noncompliance as regards of Effluent Treatment Plants (ETPs) to the tune of 3.23 Crore Tk. between December 2014 to April 2015.)  In the FY 16 budget the following has been proposed;  Withdrawal of existing 15 percent VAT on the manufacturing of plastic crystals through recycling of
plastic waste, in recognition of positive impact on environment.
 Exemption of VAT on producing and supplying batteries up to the capacity of 60 ampere to the
IDCOL registered solar panel manufacturers by battery manufacturing industries.
 To promote the case of jute as an environment friendly product, withdrawal of four percent VAT
previously levied on buying of raw jute and 15 percent VAT levied on license issuance and renewal fee of jute and jute products.  There should be an assessment of the implementation experience of these measures, and their impact on safeguarding environment in subsequent budgets.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Explicit allocation for Explicit Defense Budget (Tk. Crore)
Defense services is 6.2% of total expenditure (7.4% in RBFY15)  One may expect this allocation to increase at the end of the year as per past trend Explicit Defense Budget as % of Total Budget
Explicit Defense Budget as % of GDP
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 VI. SOCIAL SECTOR CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Education
 Total allocation for the education sector in BFY2016 is Tk.17103 cr. which is 5.6% higher than that of RBFY2015.
 Allocation for the education sector is 13.7% of total budget in FY2016  Allocation is lower than the UNESCO suggested limit (20% of total budget)  Education budget (allocation and expenditure) has been hovering around 2% of GDP over the years. UNESCO stipulates allocation of 6% of GDP  Rise in expenditure-GDP ratio indicates better utilisation of resources  Per capita allocation and expenditure both in nominal and real term has increased Education sector seems to get lower budget with the announcement of education policy 2010! Allocation and Expenditure for Education Sector
Expenditur Allocation
e as % of as % of total Allocation Expenditur Allocation Expenditur
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Education
 Of selected large ADP projects currently being implemented, possible maximum completion by 2017 will be within the range of 34% - 97%.  A number of projects are behind targeted timeline Completion status of selected projects
Name of the project ADP Al ocation Maximum possible completion in FY-16 (%) EC assisted school feeding 1/7/2006- primary education programme (1st revise) School feeding programme 01/07/2010- primary education in poverty ridden area (1st 31/12/2017 Reaching out of school primary education children (RoSC) project (2nd 31/12/2017 Secondary education primary education quality and access enhancement project Secondary education investment programme higher education (SECIP) CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Allocation for the health sector in BFY16 is Tk.12695 which is 10% higher than RBFY15 Over the period since 2003, share of health both as percent of GDP and total budget has been  From 0.90% of GDP in FY2010 to 0.74% in FY2016 From 6.13% of total budget in FY2010 to 4.31 in FY2016  Historically, health sector is neglected both in terms of allocation and expenditure  Per capita expenditure of health budget in real terms is less than Tk.400 Allocation and Expenditure for Health Sector
Expenditure as % Allocation as Nominal per capita Allocation as % Expenditure as of total allocation total budget Allocation Expenditure Allocation Expenditure CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  Gender budget was introduced in FY2010 with 4 ministries/divisions which is 40 since  Allocation has increased over the last five years: from 24.7% in FY10 to 26.8% in FY16 Allocation as % of total GDP has slightly improved: from 3.95% in FY2010 to 4.61% in  Allocation related to gender budget has increased for 26 ministries and decreased for 14 ministries during FY2016  Ministry wise highest share of allocation for women is in Ministry of Women and Children Affairs (82%) and lowest for Ministry of Science and Technology Allocation
Allocation for % of Total
Proposed FY
Proposed FY
women % of Total
Ministry of Women and Children Affairs Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief Ministry of Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs Rural Development and Co-operatives Division Ministry of Labour and Employment Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Religious Affairs Ministry of Water Resources Ministry of Primary and Mass Education CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16  The much awaited child budget has been introduced in FY2016!  Appreciate government's initiative  Child budget shows allocation of 5 ministries; however, no new allocation is made Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's Type of Expenditure Total allocation as % of total budget Total expenditure as % of GDP Ministry of Education and Ministry of Primary and Mass Education Total allocation as % of total budget Total expenditure as % of GDP Ministry of Social Welfare and Ministry of Women and Children Affairs Total allocation as % of total budget Total expenditure as % of GDP CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 e. SOCIAL SAFETY NET CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES
 There is no comprehensive list of safety net programmes for FY16 as  Allowances for major programmes under social safety net programmes (SSNP) have remain either unchanged or only changed insignificantly since FY10. As a result the real value of allowance has reduced over the years  Thus the real value of 300 Tk given as old age allowance would be 183 Tk if price level of April 2015 is compared with price level of July 2010 (CPI in July 2010 and April 2015 was 147.1 and 211.5 respectively)  Honorarium for freedom fighters (above 65 years of age) has been increased from Tk. 5,000 in FY2015 to Tk. 10,000 in FY 2016.
 This is a positive move as many freedom fighters live in abject poverty without having a reliable source of income.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES
 Proposal to establish a "Pension Fund Management Authority" to manage government employees' pension.  A draft National Social Security Strategy has been formulated.
Government had planned to increase the share of SSP spending to 3 percent of GDP by the end of the Sixth Plan (FY14-15) The share of SSP spending was only 2% of GDP in FY15.  Government to implement a project titled "Strengthening Public Financial Management for Social Protection" shortly to increase the effectiveness and accountability of the social safety net programmes. CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES
Proposed changes in the major SSNPs
 Enhancing the number of beneficiaries for
 old age allowance to 30 lakh in FY16 from 27.23 lakh in FY15;  widow, abandoned and destitute women allowance to 11.13 lakh in FY16 from 10.12 lakh in FY15;  insolvent disabled persons allowance to 6 lakh in FY16 from 4 lakh in  disabled students receiving stipends to 60 thousand in FY16 from 50 thousand in FY15. Side by side, the rate of stipend will also be increased.
 maternity allowance for poor mothers and those of working lactating mother assistance fund to 2.6 lakh in FY16 from 2.2 lakh in FY15 (20 percent increase). The above five programmes to increase the number of beneficiaries from 44 lakh to 50 lakh in FY16.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES
Poverty Database
 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in cooperation with the World Bank is
developing a digital poverty database for the poorer sections of the population and social safety net coverage. This is to be implemented within four years (2013 to 2017) involving a total cost of 328.8 crore Tk.
 Planning Commission approved the project in October 2013.  The project got an allocation of 130.2 crore Tk in FY2016 ADP. The allocation was 25.7 crore Tk in revised ADP of FY2015.  Only 3.3 crore Tk was spent in July-March of FY2015 while the cumulative financial progress up to March FY2015 was only one per cent as the main work on data collection has not started yet.
 A field test commenced on 8 November, 2014 in Narsinghdi. Following the field test one pilot survey was conducted in Rangapur and another one in Nilfamari.  The main project is expected to start from end of December 2015 or January 2016. The title of the project has been changed to "National Household Database" as the survey include over 35 million household.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 VII. LOCAL GOVERNMENT & CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Local Government Financing
 Allocation for LGD and Ministry of Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs in FY16 has increased (growth in FY16 over RB15 is 10.98% and 13.89% respectively)  Allocation for rural development and cooperatives in FY16 has decreased
(growth in FY16 over RB15 is -15.78%) Table: Probability estimation of FY15 budgetary expenditure
 Ministry of
FY15 budgetary budgetary expenditure expenditure is Local government division
in Rural development and co-
operatives division Ministry of Chittagong Hill *Coding: Probability of budgetary expenditure (91-100)% = Green; 81-90%= Orange  ADP allocation for LGD is about Tk. 16650 Crore. The share has decreased
from 19.8% in RB15 to 17.2% in FY16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Local Government Financing
 An analysis of the status of budgetary expenditure of important 27 Projects by 2016 according to the project tenure in ADP under ‘LGD' and ‘LGED' in Rural development and rural institutions sector reveals that: • Budgetary expenditure for Agricultural infrastructure development project shows only 2.7% completion upto March 2015 and a maximum of 23.1% will be spent by • 8 of the 27 projects were listed in ADP FY16 for 100% possible completion• Of those 8, 2 projects namely "Construction Level of possible budgetary
of 520.60m long RCC Pre-Stressed Girder expenditure for 27 projects by the end
Bridge on Dhaleshari river of Nagarpur-
Mirzapur via Mokna road of Nagarpur Level of spending (%) % of projectsUpazila Construction of Two Bridges on the river Brahmatutra under Islampur upazila of Jamalpur district (2nd revised) are lagging • These two projects will possibly be able to spend only 32.5% and 95.2% of the allocated budget by the end of FY16 respectively CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Whither District Budget?
 It appears that ‘District Budget' has been abandoned after two years following its introduction- the first district budget, for Tangail, was included in FY14 budget andanother six divisional districts namely Khulna, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Rangpur, andSylhet including Tangail were included in FY15 budget  The budget FY16 mentions about preparation of a strategy paper to address the
issues of revenue distribution formula, procedure of decentralisation of power tothe LGIs and areas of administrative reform. This needs to be prepared with dueurgency  In the budget speech FY16, proposal to allocate a lump sum amount for each district has been mentioned, but no amount has been earmarked
 Can it be done just through discussion between Finance and Local Government Ministry as the budget states?  A Local government Finance commission should be constituted for
comprehensively dealing with attendant issues.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 VIII. CONCLUDING REMARKS CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Good Initiatives, But What About The Follow-Up?
One significant weakness as regards the way the FY 16 Budget has been designed is that it does not mention about progress, scaling up and plans concerning a number of good initiatives that were flagged in the FY 15 Budget. In absence of this, it is difficult to ascertain what has been the fate of these initiatives.
 An Audit Act for Budget Implementation was first mentioned in the FY 14 Budget. In the FY 15 Budget it was mentioned that the Act was underway. The FY 16 Budget does not mention what is the status of the Act.
 FY 15 Budget mentioned about installation of a state of the art debt database to enhance the capacity of public debt management. There is no mention as to what has been the progress and how the data base is being used.
 Following up on the first District Budget for Tangail in the FY 14 budget, the FY 15 Budget presented 7 District Budgets. It was mentioned that gradually all districts will be brought under the purview of the District Budget. FY16 Budget does not mention what is the plan and progress in this regard.  A special allocation of Tk. 50 crore was proposed in FY 15 budget for construction of houses in divisional and district towns for neglected segments of the society. There is no mention about progress and follow-up in this regard. CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Good Initiatives, But What About The Follow-Up?
 It was announced in the FY 15 Budget that there will be a "stimulus package" for leather (including some others). However, the FY16 Budget does not mention any comprehensive stimulus package for this promising sector.
 FY 15 Budget stated that "Genuine" fishermen across the country were to be given an identity card and be registered in a database. FY 16 Budget does not mention whether such a database has been created.
 Proposal was made for digitized land surveys which would make zoning information and land ownership easy to digitally archive. Digital surveys and updated record keeping was said to be underway in parts of Dhaka. It is not known whether this work has been completed and whether, and how, this work is being scaled up. A suggestion: Future budgets may contain a matrix articulating key initiatives in the preceding budget, progress made in this context and a plan and timeline for key milestones to be achieved during the burget period.
CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 Good Initiatives, But What About The Follow-Up?
In its third reading of "State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY 15", CPD has suggested a number of reforms and had proposed setting up a number of independent commissions.
Reform initiatives that need to be prioritized
 Reform agenda has stalled
 Public Services Act  PPP Act Privatisation Financial Reporting Act  Implementation of VAT and SD Act 2012  Five independent commissions  An independent statistical commission to validate the macroeconomic correlates A permanent agriculture price commission A permanent local government financing commission An independent public expenditure review commission An independent financial sector reform commission FY 16 Budget only mentions about placement of PPP Act in Jatiyo Sangshad, implementation of VAT and SD ACT 2012 from July 2016, merger of Privatisation Commission with BOI and setting up of Financial Sector Reform Commission. CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16 CPD (2015): An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015-16

Source: http://cpd.org.bd/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Centre-for-Policy-Dialogue-CPD-Analysis-National-Budget-FY2015-16-June-2015.pdf